Tools and rankings
RankingBest prediction market tools 2026The terminals, trackers, and dashboards traders use to get an edge, ranked, with SmartX first.Read the ranking
MethodHow we score prediction marketsThe four things we rate every venue on, how we weight them, and why SmartX ranks first.Read
GuideHow to track smart money in prediction marketsFind the wallets with a real record and read what they are doing before you trade.Read
Guides
GuidePrediction market trading strategiesReal approaches, framed as research and risk management, not get-rich promises.Read
ExplainerPrediction markets vs pollsWhy a market price is a live estimate, where polls still win, and how to use both.Read
GuideHow to read prediction market pricesCents are probabilities. How to read them, and when they lie.Read
GuideExpected value, the only formula you needEdge is the gap between evidence and price. The math, worked.Read
GuideBase rates: the outside viewHow pros anchor forecasts in historical frequencies.Read
GuideHow to bet on electionsRead a price as a probability, compare Kalshi and Polymarket, and weigh the risks.Read
ExplainerWhat is a prediction market?How a price becomes a probability, and why these markets aggregate information.Read
AnalysisAre prediction markets accurate?When liquid markets beat polls, and where thin markets mislead.Read
GuideCrypto prediction marketsHow on-chain venues settle in stablecoins, plus fees and access.Read
ComparePrediction markets vs sports bettingExchange odds vs a sportsbook's vig, and the house edge math.Read
Signal analysis
Live board →
SportsWill Spain win the 2026 World Cup?Where the market prices Spain for the final, and what the evidence says.Read
MacroUS recession by end of 2026?Our verdict on the market's recession probability.Read
MacroZero Fed rate cuts in 2026?Is the market's zero-cut price fair against the evidence?Read
PoliticsDemocrats sweep the 2026 midterms?A Senate coin flip wearing a sweep label.Read
PoliticsSplit Congress: R Senate, D House?Why joint models price this well below the market.Read
PoliticsNewsom the 2028 Democratic nominee?A front-runner two years out, priced honestly.Read